http://futuresavvy.net/2009/04/swine-flu-and-google-and-why-the-1918-flu-epidemic-wont-happen-this-time/ Making better decisions to manage uncertainty and profit from change Sun, 09 Oct 2011 22:33:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://futuresavvy.net/2009/04/swine-flu-and-google-and-why-the-1918-flu-epidemic-wont-happen-this-time/comment-page-1/#comment-13276 Carl Taylor Fri, 01 May 2009 13:02:46 +0000 http://www.futuresavvy.net/2009/04/swine-flu-and-google-and-why-the-1918-flu-epidemic-wont-happen-this-time/#comment-13276 I do think that interesting as this article is, it falls into a trap regarding the term pandemic. A pandemic is *highly likely* (which is why the WHO alert is at five, out of a possible six). But pandemic only requires geographical spread, and does not mark severity in any way. As one WHO expert said yesterday, it is theoretically possible to have a pandemic in which nobody dies. In reality, it most likely won't be as bad as feared, or as bad as it would have been at any previous time, due to advances in preparedness, but the speed of travel means it is at least as likely as any earlier flu to become pandemic. I do think that interesting as this article is, it falls into a trap regarding the term pandemic. A pandemic is *highly likely* (which is why the WHO alert is at five, out of a possible six). But pandemic only requires geographical spread, and does not mark severity in any way. As one WHO expert said yesterday, it is theoretically possible to have a pandemic in which nobody dies.
In reality, it most likely won’t be as bad as feared, or as bad as it would have been at any previous time, due to advances in preparedness, but the speed of travel means it is at least as likely as any earlier flu to become pandemic.

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