Posted by Adam Gordon on Aug 20, 2009 in 2015, 2025, all, emerging technologies, forecast filtering, Future Savvy, strategic foresight, systems dynamics, trend tracking
Arsenal FC manager Arsène Wenger this week made a big prediction about the future of football in Europe. Now it’s hardly news when a sports coach predicts the future, but that’s because their forecasts are of the day-to-day variety and restricted to their own micro-climate: “Ronaldo has been going well in practice, I predict he’ll get on the scoresheet come Saturday.’ Or, ‘We’ll beat Chelsea in next months return leg,“ and so on.
Arsène Wenger
But this was different. Wenger (on the eve of the Arsenal vs Celtic Rangers Champions League match) predicted a “European League” in 10 years featuring the continent’s top clubs – that is, he offered foresight into potential structural, industry-wide change in multi-billion-dollar UK and European soccer industry.
Currently clubs play in their national domestic leagues. And all Europe-wide competitions are cup (pool stage + knockout) competitions.
Although not fleshed out, the form is not hard to see: the top four-or-so clubs from each major country (fewer from smaller countries) in one annual league competition. This means that Manchester United, Liverpool, AC Milan, Porto, Juventus, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Roma and so on would all be playing each other on a weekly basis throughout the year (and, presumably, playing in no other league competitions).
Drivers of Change
The point of Future Savvy is that one can judge the validity of predictions like this before time. In this case, part of the way to assess Mr Wenger’s future view would be to gauge the strength of driving vs blocking forces behind his outcome.
There is evidence of strong drivers in favor of a European Super League. These are:
1. The rise of “super-teams.” In the UK and across Europe the same few teams dominate their domestic league year after year. The reason is a simple reinforcing feedback loop where winning teams get more money (from TV rights, from gates, from merchandising, etc.) which means they can buy better players, which means they win more. Over the last decade the English Football Premier League has become, effectively, a competition between Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal. (In the US the “draft–pick” system mitigates against any franchise getting too strong in this way, but no such system-balancer exists in European football.)
2. The growing ease and ubiquity of continental travel. Whether fans will follow their teams across Europe is a key issue, but indicators from cup competitions is that fans can and will travel.
3. The growing role of, and technological sophistication of television, particularly Sky Sports. Despite the many who travel, most people these days follow games at home or in sports bars. Television’s coverage and choices (the remote control options “red button”) have exploded, and screens themselves have got bigger and better. And genuine personalization of camera feed and other forms of interactively is emerging. In this, football, and professional sports as a whole, is becoming more about the screen as the stadium, accelerating a long-term trend. The reality is it makes little difference to most fans if the game is being played 50 miles away or 500.
4. The move to high-level, star-packed, events. There’s a clear trend across sports in general for events featuring the best players playing each other in all-star environments, not as a special “all-star” game but as an everyday occurrence. In cricket, for example, the Indian IPL has ridden this trend, offering franchised matches of, effectively, one mixed team of global superstars versus another. The fans love it.
There is also the financial do-or-die logic that soccer clubs face. The money feedback loop means they must continually drive up their revenues. It’s not possible to stand still. A European Football Super League would compel participation from the top teams for this reason alone.
vs Blockers
Adequately assessing the likelihood of the Wenger view of the future further requires investigation of blockers – factors which will prevent the outcome. In this case these may be overwhelming logistics of moving teams around to this extent week in and week out; limits on fans’ travel energy and budget; extent of fans’ loyalty to the relatively minor (non-super) domestic teams; and domestic league administrators’ determination and ability to keep domestic leagues from loosing their cash cows and following their own downward spiral into television obscurity.
These blockers on the European football league forecast are real. The question is whether they stop the future or how long they delay it. I’d judge the blockers as considerably weaker than the drivers and so I’d go with Wenger in predicting a European Super League (even richer and more “glamorous” than anything soccer has seen before) in about 10 years from now.
read morePosted by Adam Gordon on Aug 13, 2009 in 2025, all, emerging technologies, social change, strategic foresight, technology change
I’ve been following a fun little foresight project organized by Rohit Talwar of “FastFuture” contributed to by many members of the Association of Professional Futurists, which looks at new jobs that may emerge in the next 10-20 years as the result of science and technology advancement.
One of the benefits of thinking about science and technology foresight in terms of jobs is that doing so encourages a reality check, forcing the question: will someone get paid to do this, if so, by whom and why (how will it be profitable to the job giver?) In other words, the question is taken beyond whether one can imagine a job that will need doing or a job that someone might like to do it – that’s just mental bubble gum – to the more interesting and taxing issue of whether such need will justify enough paying customers such that the job will exist at all.
Of course, in all this science and technology progress will make new products and services possible partly by reducing the price point of providing them.
Not all of the jobs of the future listed below, I feel, pass this test. But many do. And it’s an interesting thought experiment. It’s a work in progress (see below.) The list as exists so far is:
1. Body Part Maker
Due to the huge advances being made in bio-tissues, robotics and plastics, the creation of body parts – from organs to limbs – will soon be possible, requiring body part makers, body part stores and body part repair shops.
2. Nano-Medic
Advances in nanotechnology offer the potential for a range of sub-atomic ‘nanoscale’ devices, inserts and procedures that could transform personal healthcare.. A new range of nano-medicine specialists will be required to administer these treatments.
3. Pharmer (sic) of Genetically Engineered Crops and Livestock
New-age farmers will raise crops and livestock that have been genetically engineered to improve yields and produce therapeutic proteins. Works in progress include a vaccine-carrying tomato and therapeutic milk from cows, sheep and goats.
4. Old Age Wellness Manager / Consultant Specialists
Drawing on a range of medical, pharmaceutical, prosthetic, psychiatric, natural and fitness solutions to help manage the various health and personal needs of the aging population.
5. Memory Augmentation Surgeon
Surgeons that add extra memory to people who want to increase their memory capacity and to help those who have been over exposed to information in the course of their life and simply can no longer take on any more information – thus leading to sensory shutdown.
6. ‘New Science’ Ethicist
As scientific advances accelerate in new and emerging fields such as cloning, proteomics and nanotechnology, a new breed of ethicist may be required. These science ethicists will need to understand a range of underlying scientific fields and help society make consistent choices about what developments to allow. Much of science will not be a question of can we, but should we..
7. Space Pilots, Architects and Tour Guides
With Virgin Galactic and others pioneering space tourism, space trained pilots and tour guides will be needed, as well as designers to enable the habitation of space and the planets. Current projects at SICSA (University of Houston) include a greenhouse on Mars, lunar outposts and space exploration vehicles.
8. Vertical Farmers
There is growing interest in the concept of city based vertical farms, with hydroponically-fed food being grown in multi-storey buildings. These offer the potential to dramatically increase farm yield and reduce environmental degradation. The managers of such entities will require expertise in a range of scientific disciplines, engineering and commerce.
9. Climate Change Reversal Specialist
As the threats and impacts of climate change increase, a new breed of engineer-scientists will be required to help reduce or reverse the effects of climate change on particular locations. They will need to apply multi-disciplinary solutions ranging from filling the oceans with iron filings to erecting giant umbrellas that deflect the sun’s rays.
10. Quarantine Enforcer
If a deadly virus starts spreading rapidly, few countries, and few people, will be prepared. Nurses will be in short supply. Moreover, as mortality rates rise, and neighborhoods are shut down, someone will have to guard the gates.
11. Weather Modification Police
The act of stealing clouds to create rain is already happening in some parts of the world, and is altering weather patterns thousands of miles away. Weather modification police will need to control and monitor who is allowed to shoot rockets containing silver iodine into the air – a way to provoke rainfall from passing clouds.
12. Virtual Lawyer
As more and more of our daily life goes online, specialists will be required to resolve legal disputes which could involve citizens resident in different legal jurisdictions.
13. Avatar Manager / Devotees – Virtual Teachers
Avatars could be used to support or even replace teachers in the elementary classroom, i.e., computer personas that serve as personal interactive guides. The Devotee is the human that makes sure that the Avatar and the student are properly matched and engaged.
14. Alternative Vehicle Developers
Designers and builders of the next generations of vehicle transport using alternative materials and fuels. Could the dream of underwater and flying cars become a reality within the next two decades?
15. Narrowcasters
As the broadcasting media become increasingly personalized, roles will emerge for specialists working with content providers and advertisers to create content tailored to individual needs. While mass market customisation solutions may be automated, premium rate narrow casting could be performed by humans.
16. Waste Data Handler
Specialists providing a secure data disposal service for those who do not want to be tracked, electronically or otherwise.
17. Virtual Clutter Organizer
Specialists will help us organise our electronic lives. Clutter management would include effective handling of email, ensuring orderly storage of data, management of electronic ID’s and rationalizing the applications we use.
18. Time Broker / Time Bank Trader
Alternative currencies will evolve their own markets – for example time banking already exists. (Time banking facilitates reciprocal service exchange based on units of time.)
19. Social ‘Networking’ Worker
Social workers for those in some way traumatized or marginalized by social networking.
20. Personal Branders
An extension of the role played by stylists, publicists and executive coaches –advising on how to create a personal ‘brand’ using social and other media. What personality are you projecting via your Blog, Twitter, etc? What personal values do you want to build into your image – and is your image consistent with your real life persona and your goals?
I added a few of my own to the database (trying to avoid repetition) which would both be needed and economically justifiable:
(1) Organ Agent: person who sources and negotiates real or artificial organs on behalf of those in who want them. Interacts with donor, manages prices or bids if applicable, negotiates with hospitals, and so on.
(2) Automated Systems Monitor: person who oversees automated systems (e.g. smart highways) and intervenes and corrects as necessary. “ASMs” would each need specific expertise in their field — transport or manufacturing or surgery or whatever is automated — but would share the specific skill of being a complex-automated-system monitor, evaluator, and emergency troubleshooter.
(3) End-of-Life Planner: person who helps people plan and manage their own death (combating the fact that medicine/technology will be able to keep most people technically alive pretty much forever).
You can add your own thoughts by taking the survey at http://www.zoomerang.com/Survey/?p=WEB229HP2J3ALX closing date: August 19th, 2009.
read morePosted by Adam Gordon on Aug 4, 2009 in 2025, all, economy & finance, failed predictions, lifestyles & values, social change, technology change
In all the predictions of the future that I have ever read or heard, and all the scenarios I have been exposed to, it’s almost unheard of to see one that says “the squeezed middle class keeps their eye on a good deal, as they always have.”
I’m thinking about this as I see the Guardian today featuring a story about how “Poundland” has doubled it’s profits. Poundland is a copy-cat of the venerable US institution, the “dollar store,” where everything cost the same price, in this case £1.
Pic: Andrew Fox, The Guardian, August 4, 2009
The merchandising of these stores is not unsubtle. There are definite too-good-to-be-true loss leaders, but these more than offset by the many items that cost pennies wholesale. Fair enough. And recently reported doubling of profits is because more people are buying at these stores (downshifting) due to recessionarly squeeze and/or because of the current “sense of thrift” in the zeitgeist which makes pennywatching more “the done thing.”
But neither merchandising, nor consumer psychology is our primary concern here. From a foresight point of view, the point is that forecasts of 2010 that were around around a decade or two ago didn’t quite get around to saying anything about Poundstretcher leading a healthy economic life. It’s as unsexy as anything, compared to “peak oil” or advancing “singularity,” or nano-babble, and so on into the glorious future – or its polar alternative: crash & burn, soup kitchens, urban warlords rampaging, and so on.
But here we are coming to the end of the decade and a basic retailing gimmick for the squeezed middle-class consumer is well trafficked and very much part of the future. Yes, it’s success correlates with tougher times, but economic cycles will be with us repeatedly through the rest of the century and beyond.
This doesn’t mean there won’t be breakthroughs in technology or in consumer behavior. In fact, looking at the picture, one surely would not have got a pound for any amount of plain bottled water in a retail environment 20 years ago. Things do change. They just change slowly, or unevenly, against the gritty reality of savvy agregate choices made by a wary (global and growing) middle class.
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