http://futuresavvy.net/2009/10/do-stock-markets-reliably-tell-us-anything-about-the-future/ Making better decisions to manage uncertainty and profit from change Sun, 09 Oct 2011 22:33:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://futuresavvy.net/2009/10/do-stock-markets-reliably-tell-us-anything-about-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-21184 Andrew Curry Fri, 02 Oct 2009 21:32:50 +0000 http://futuresavvy.net/?p=921#comment-21184 My recollection about the wisdom of crowds is that they are more right than experts when each member of the crowd makes their assessment independently. Of course, as you say, this doesn't happen in stock markets. Not only do they follow each other's assessments, but technology enables them to do this more quickly, even more automatically, than ever before. And the people making the assessments are not necessarily that diverse a group either - another important characteristic of 'wise' crowds. My recollection about the wisdom of crowds is that they are more right than experts when each member of the crowd makes their assessment independently. Of course, as you say, this doesn’t happen in stock markets. Not only do they follow each other’s assessments, but technology enables them to do this more quickly, even more automatically, than ever before. And the people making the assessments are not necessarily that diverse a group either – another important characteristic of ‘wise’ crowds.

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