Posted by Adam Gordon on Jun 29, 2010 in all, foresight tools & methods, lifestyles & values, social change, strategic foresight, trend tracking
Anyone can see a trend – a pattern in the data, something waxing or waning in the world. You often see trend lists put out by research organizations or trend-tracking firms that itemize things on the march or in decline: people living in foreign countries up 10%; biodiversity down 30%; numbers of patents filed up 60%, and so on.
The harder task in achieving quality foresight is to judge across such lists what is really going to change the world and therefore the operating environment for most firms, and what is just, well, merely of passing interest. The true test is to get trend impact right, not merely to call the trend.
There is no exact science to this of course. But a good heuristic is to judge the strength of the trend (drivers for vs. blockers against) x change to status quo (how new is this really?) x number of people affected. In this regard, a recent FT article reports on a genuinely world-changing trend.
The story is about how Indian television stations, led by Murcdoch’s Star India and Viacom are writing more independent, assertive roles for women in soap operas to reflect new realities in the Indian middle class. They hope to renew viewer ratings, as this clip explains:
Source: FT.com
Star has recently launched Pratigya (Oath), about an ordinary girl who marries into a rich family and stands up to its chauvinist patriarchs, and Sasural Genda Phool, about a rich woman who marries into a middle-class family but insists on maintaining a modern life.
New womens’ roles and aspirations have permeated Western society in the past generation and a half, and have profoundly changed everything from dress to daycare. Now the other 5 billion are going there too.
I would not (I stress) expect the Western model to be followed to the letter. Cultures always interpret world trends and technologies their own way. But billions of girls are growing up to be unlike their mothers in key respects, and will demand industries — not just the media — move with them, and will reward those that do with unprecedented commercial opportunities. That’s a certain future.
Posted by Adam Gordon on Jun 10, 2010 in all, strategic foresight
I’ve been meaning to write about the business model canvas and how it fabulously advances industry foresight (principally by providing a way to take foresight ideas forward into actions, to-do’s, and next steps.) It is truly breakthrough stuff. See The Business Model Innovation Hub and the book Business Model Generation, by Alexander Osterwalder and Yves Pigneur.
But, it is the eve of the soccer World Cup so in the interest of providing more couch potato time for myself, I table the longer discussion in favor of this taster, which shows the FIFA business model canvas. The point of the canvas is it provides a “sandbox” for thinking how elements could be rearranged, taken away, or new ones added, to renew the business model for the future.
Of course, renewing a business model begs the question does it need renewing? Which is the question that bedevils all scenario and futures thinking. For some the status quo works perfectly! Did you know that FIFA demands that Sepp Blatter is hosted by South Africa at the protocol status of a visiting Head of State? Hmmm.
read morePosted by Adam Gordon on Jun 7, 2010 in all, decision-making, Future Savvy, management, strategic foresight
I’m always looking for ways to explain the role of quality foresight in everyday management, so I liked this little animated gif from managewell.com.
Imagine driving down a country road when a street dog starts chasing your car. The dog attacks the car, but by the time it gets close, the car has moved ahead, so the dog changes direction and attacks the new coordinates. This goes on as the dog adapts, but it never quite catches up, and once it is following behind it is obviously too slow to catch up. Had it thought ahead and run straight it would have had its day with the tires.
The resulting curve looks something like this:
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In mathematics, this is known as the ‘curve of pursuit. The dog is attacking the problem as it sees it right now, but by the time it reaches it, the problem has moved on a few steps. A ‘problem-solving’ approach like this is going to prolong the time it takes to get to key decisions, and give the initiative to competitors. The better approach in managing moving situations — and all situations are moving — is to anticipate and tackle tomorrow’s position today.
Obviously the devil is in the quality of the anticipation, but for that there is Future Savvy and other key resources that exist for determining quality in foresight work. Industry foresight can never be done perfectly, but it can be done well enough to avoid the “dog chase” future-management style that characterizes much of industry leadership.
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