Posted by Adam Gordon on Jun 29, 2010 in all, foresight tools & methods, lifestyles & values, social change, strategic foresight, trend tracking | 0 comments
Anyone can see a trend – a pattern in the data, something waxing or waning in the world. You often see trend lists put out by research organizations or trend-tracking firms that itemize things on the march or in decline: people living in foreign countries up 10%; biodiversity down 30%; numbers of patents filed up 60%, and so on.
The harder task in achieving quality foresight is to judge across such lists what is really going to change the world and therefore the operating environment for most firms, and what is just, well, merely of passing interest. The true test is to get trend impact right, not merely to call the trend.
There is no exact science to this of course. But a good heuristic is to judge the strength of the trend (drivers for vs. blockers against) x change to status quo (how new is this really?) x number of people affected. In this regard, a recent FT article reports on a genuinely world-changing trend.
The story is about how Indian television stations, led by Murcdoch’s Star India and Viacom are writing more independent, assertive roles for women in soap operas to reflect new realities in the Indian middle class. They hope to renew viewer ratings, as this clip explains:
Source: FT.com
Star has recently launched Pratigya (Oath), about an ordinary girl who marries into a rich family and stands up to its chauvinist patriarchs, and Sasural Genda Phool, about a rich woman who marries into a middle-class family but insists on maintaining a modern life.
New womens’ roles and aspirations have permeated Western society in the past generation and a half, and have profoundly changed everything from dress to daycare. Now the other 5 billion are going there too.
I would not (I stress) expect the Western model to be followed to the letter. Cultures always interpret world trends and technologies their own way. But billions of girls are growing up to be unlike their mothers in key respects, and will demand industries — not just the media — move with them, and will reward those that do with unprecedented commercial opportunities. That’s a certain future.