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	<title>Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight</title>
	<link>http://futuresavvy.net</link>
	<description>Making better decisions about the future, to manage uncertainty and profit from change</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 11 Mar 2010 11:06:32 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>&#8216;We need to find a way to make futurism dull,&#8217; says Mr Foresight</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Paul Saffo is always good value, and doesn&#8217;t shy from polemic. In this talk at the Foresight Institute 2010 conference, Saffo, emeritus and alumnus of the the foresight industry for over 20 years has a full swipe at &#8216;futurists&#8217; who participate in &#8216;future-entertainment&#8217; or profess to &#8217;see into the future;&#8217; but calls for the broad [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/03/paul-saffo-talk/</link>
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		<title>The BBC has a jolly decent go at leading its multi-stakeholder future</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The BBC has released a blueprint for its future, summarized in a 64-page &#8216;Director-General&#8217;s Report which can be downloaded here.  The gist is the corporation plans to back off from many of its  more commercial offerings, particularly closing digital radio  stations such as 6Music and the Asian Network, and pruning its online [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/03/bbc-futures/</link>
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		<title>The Basicland parable and the future of America, as viewed by one of its best decision-makers</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Charlie Munger, Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation, the diversified investment firm chaired by Warren Buffett, has a piece titled: &#8216;Basically, it&#8217;s Over&#8216; in Slate this week.
First, let me say, what I like about investors (and managers and entrepreneurs) with long-term track records of success, is it means &#8212; it must mean, by definition &#8212; they [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/02/basicland-future-of-america/</link>
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		<title>The happy medium is a guide to the future for Toyota, McDonalds, and all of us</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Two running business stories with foresight importance this week, both I realize brought to me by smartbrief.com (Smartbrief on Leadership) which I find a very credible news aggregation service. The first is a WSJ piece &#8216;How Lean Manufacturing Can Backfire.&#8217;
Lean manufacturing creates efficiencies and shaves production costs by creating just-in-time &#8212; no inventory &#8212; systems, [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/02/guide-to-the-future/</link>
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		<title>Telling words on a running controversy in risk &amp; foresight, from Peter Bernstein</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve been flying across the world recently, which has given me a few quiet moments to read a real bona fide book, and the one I have been busy with is Peter Bernstein&#8217;s Against the Gods: the Remarkable Story of Risk (Wiley, 1996). It&#8217;s aclaimed all over the place, particularly in risk management circles, but [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/02/a-few-telling-words-on-an-unresolved-controversy-in-foresight-work-from-peter-bernstein/</link>
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		<title>Haiti, when the present trumps the future, but possibly jolts it too</title>
		<description><![CDATA[To misquote Ecclesiastes (Kohelet): ‘For everything there is a season and a time for everything under the sun… a time to think about tomorrow, and a time to think about today.’
Those of you who know this blog know that I try to keep it updated every 7-10 days with real content I have personally written. [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/01/haiti-when-the-present-trumps-the-future-but-possibly-jolts-it-too/</link>
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		<title>What goes around comes around, like Yule and mom-and-pop shops inside Wal-Mart</title>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the principles of anticipating the future correctly, separating out what will happen from what we think-hope-fear will happen, is to consciously factor in the principle that fundamental human needs don&#8217;t disappear. They are bundled, interpreted, and served one way in the present, and this may change in a new era as technologies advance [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/12/yule-wal-mart/</link>
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		<title>So who flew to Copenhagen this week?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I have a fond little memory from one of the early multi-candidate debates in the last US election campaign. It was on prime-time TV: there were still about a dozen or so candidates in the running, including Obama and Hillary Clinton, each was standing behind a podium, and as the topic of climate change came [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/12/so-who-flew-to-copenhagen-this-week/</link>
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		<title>Do you have a freshwater or saltwater view of the future?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Economists make a handy, if mildly irreverent, distinction between &#8220;freshwater&#8221; and &#8220;saltwater&#8221; economics. Freshwater refers to economic theory that rests on the efficient markets hypothesis &#8212; a belief in the efficiency and rationality of free markets. It is associated with  Milton Friedman and the University of Chicago school. It was the thinking behind Thatcher [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/12/do-you-have-a-freshwater-or-saltwater-view-of-the-future/</link>
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		<title>The turkey problem in trend work: is your prediction robust to Thanksgiving?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[We owe a debt to Nassim Taleb for memorably encapsulating the demerits of predicting by  extrapolating trends as &#8220;The Turkey Problem,&#8221; and now seems the moment to reiterate it:
Imagine you are a turkey. Every day someone comes to feed you. Every day you get bigger. Your portion sizes get bigger too, brought by a [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/11/the-turkey-problem-in-trend-extrapolation/</link>
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		<title>The C5 electric car and the art of getting the future less wrong than competitors do</title>
		<description><![CDATA[In a recent Times article &#8216;The future was never going to be the C5&#8216; actor-comedian Ben Millar  offers a familiar criticism of foresight work. Inter alia he says: &#8220;For all our achievements in art, science, and technology, the human race has always been spectacularly bad at predicting the future. Literature is littered with shockingly [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/11/the-c5-electric-car-and-the-art-of-getting-the-future-less-wrong-than-competitors/</link>
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		<title>Risk assessment, first base on the way to industry foresight</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I’m pleased to have been invited to be one of a dozen or so regular contributors to the blog ‘Risk Matters,’ because, well, risk matters. It’s a key part of the reason why anyone or any group would look to the future&#8230; which of course also conditions how we look, what we look for, and [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/11/risk-assessment-first-base-on-the-way-to-industry-foresight/</link>
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		<title>Could America default on its debt? And what the past tells us about the future</title>
		<description><![CDATA[In Monday&#8217;s Washington Post, under an Op-Ed headed &#8216;Could America Go Broke?&#8217; columnist Robert Samuelson raises the prospect of the U.S. or another major economy defaulting on its national debt. Says Samuelson: &#8220;It&#8217;s still a very, very long shot, but it&#8217;s no longer entirely unimaginable. Governments of rich countries are borrowing so much that it&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/11/could-america-default-on-its-debt/</link>
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		<title>Unexpected prediction modesty highlights problems of timing and impact</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Continuing the theme of financial types talking to each other about predictions and predictability, this &#8216;Tea with the Economist&#8217; interview of Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia by Economist New York Bureau Chief Mathew Birk, carries interesting lessons about the limits of prediction.
 


Birk commends Roach for being one of the few to have predicted [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/10/unexpected-prediction-modesty-highlights-problems-of-timing-and-impact/</link>
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		<title>Perhaps some lessons in prediction learned as US dollar-demise scenario emerges</title>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the benefits of scenario-based future thinking is the &#8216;permission&#8217; to think through alternative future outcomes without necessarily predicting them. &#8216;Predictors&#8217; focus, by contrast, on isolating the highest probability future in order not to have to think through or plan for less likely outcomes.



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		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/10/some-lessons-in-prediction-learned-as-us-dollars-demise-scenario-takes-shape/</link>
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		<title>Do stock markets reliably tell us anything about the future?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The sustained market rally, with stocks up over 40% on average since the lows in March 2009 (The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about 6,500 in March 09; it is now about 9,500) is taken to be a forecast that real future economic recovery is on the horizon. But is the market a reliable forecaster [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/10/do-stock-markets-reliably-tell-us-anything-about-the-future/</link>
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		<title>It&#8217;s London Fashion Week, but the catwalk is out of the bag as taste-making devolves to the consumer</title>
		<description><![CDATA[London Fashion Week, the UK&#8217;s slice of the $300-billion global fashion industry, starts today with flash of couture, whirring of camera and, no doubt, glug of Veuve-Cliquot. All the sass and celebrity pizzaz, and the actual catwalk schedule, can be found at londonfashionweek.co.uk
So&#8230; it&#8217;s teen giraffes tottering around in outrageous stuff, the watered down version [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/09/its-london-fashion-week-but-the-catwalk-is-out-of-the-bag-as-taste-making-devolves-to-the-consumer/</link>
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		<title>2025 for download: &#8216;you don&#8217;t have to be right, you just have to be interesting.&#8217;</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I note from a link on the Ian Miles Futures blog that &#8220;2025:  Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology&#8221; by Coates, Hines, &#38; Mahaffie, is now available free for full-text download. 
For full disclosure, I should say I worked in the Coates office in Washington D.C. during the mid-late 1990s [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/09/2025-for-download-you-dont-have-to-be-right-you-just-have-to-be-interesting/</link>
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		<title>The &#8220;if it bleeds, it leads&#8221; lesson in anticipating self-interested predictions</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Listening to the radio this morning there was a review that quoted  a news room adage &#8212; one that I am indeed old enough to remember from my days as a newspaper reporter &#8212; which is: &#8220;if it bleeds, it leads.&#8221;
That is: disaster, mayhem, and death goes to the top of the page and [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/09/the-if-it-bleeds-it-leads-lessons-in-anticipating-poor-predictions/</link>
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		<title>Arsenal Football’s Arsène Wenger gets into the prediction game with a 10-year forecast for European soccer</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Arsenal FC manager Arsène Wenger this week made a big prediction about the future of football in Europe. Now it’s hardly news when a sports coach predicts the future, but that’s because their forecasts are of the day-to-day variety and restricted to their own micro-climate: “Ronaldo has been going well in practice, I predict he’ll [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/08/arsenal-football%e2%80%99s-arsen-wenger-gets-into-the-prediction-game-with-a-10-year-forecast-for-european-soccer/</link>
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		<title>Jobs of the future, science &amp; technology enabled employment for 2020-2030</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve been following a fun little foresight project organized by Rohit Talwar of &#8220;FastFuture&#8221;  contributed to by many members of the Association of Professional Futurists, which looks at new jobs that may emerge in the next 10-20 years as the result of science and technology advancement.
One of the benefits of thinking about science and [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/08/jobs-of-the-future-technology-enabled-employment-for-2020-2030/</link>
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		<title>Poundstretcher&#8217;s lessons for the future, for 2025, for 2050, and beyond</title>
		<description><![CDATA[In all the predictions of the future that I have ever read or heard, and all the scenarios I have been exposed to, it&#8217;s almost unheard of to see one that says &#8220;the squeezed middle class keeps their eye on a good deal, as they always have.&#8221;
I&#8217;m thinking about this as I see the Guardian [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/08/poundstretchers-lessons-for-the-future-for-2025-for-2050-and-beyond/</link>
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		<title>40 years after Apollo 11, and what no man on Mars can tell us about predicting</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The copy of USA Today, slipped under my Chicago hotel room door on Friday—failing which I would have missed the event entirely—marks the 40th anniversary of Apollo 11 putting man on the moon (July 20, 1969). It says: &#8220;40 years after Apollo 11: What&#8217;s our Next Step?&#8221; The strap goes on: &#8220;The moon again? Mars? [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/07/40-years-after-apollo-11-and-what-we-learned-about-predicting/</link>
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		<title>A look back on how people look forward, and the need for &#8216;futuriography&#8217;</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I recently received a copy of Future: A Recent History to review. True confession: what hit me first on picking up the book was (a) “wow, the title Future is not already taken!? And (b) what a fabulous job the University of Texas Press has done producing this book. It is beautifully designed, with an [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/07/a-look-back-on-how-people-look-forward-and-the-need-for-futuriography/</link>
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		<title>Peter L. Bernstein on risk; and how risk management fits into foresight as a whole</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Peter Bernstein, the author of &#8220;Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk,&#8221; died recently at the age of 90. In memoriam McKinsey Quarterly reposted this recent Bernstein interview. I put it up here because it&#8217;s a timely and timeless lesson in thinking about uncertainty and threats, and avoiding simplistic (quantitative) approaches to managing them [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/06/peter-l-bernstein-on-risk-and-how-risk-management-fits-into-foresight-as-a-whole/</link>
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