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	<title>Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight</title>
	<link>http://futuresavvy.net</link>
	<description>Making better decisions to manage uncertainty and profit from change</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 19 Aug 2010 16:54:55 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>If you&#8217;re only listening to yourself or your community, you&#8217;re deaf to the future</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Today I offer a rather naked punt for a site called &#8220;Global Voices,&#8221; but there is a solid foresight methods reason for doing it. In its own words: &#8220;Global Voices is a community of more than 300 bloggers and translators around the world who work together to bring you reports from blogs and citizen media [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/08/you-are-deaf-to-the-future/</link>
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		<title>Future Savvy, as viewed by &#8216;Info-Savvy&#8217; Peter Stoyko (SmithySmithy)</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I was lucky enough to have Future Savvy included in a lengthy review of critical thinking in forecasting &#38; foresight, done on the SmithySmithy &#8220;info-savvy&#8221; blog. The post also included Nassim Taleb&#8217;s &#8216;The Black Swan&#8217; (2007) and &#8216;Fooled By Randomness&#8217; (2005); Kenneth Posner&#8217;s &#8216;Stalking the Black Swan&#8217; (2010), and Chris Luebkeman&#8217;s Drivers of Change (2009). [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/07/future-savvy-as-viewed-by-peter-stoyko-smithysmithy/</link>
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		<title>Banking &#8216;stress test&#8217; is scenario planning by another name, with limitations</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Preliminary results of the European banking stress test are to be published by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors tomorrow (July 23.) Although the exact nature of the tests have remained under wraps &#8212; not without controversy &#8212; the essence is clear. Regulators are simulating various forms of adverse financial conditions (GNP performances, interest rates, [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/07/a-stress-test-is-a-scenario/</link>
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		<title>FEMA&#8217;s &#8216;getting urgent about the future&#8217; initiative at least talks the talk</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I was interested to see FEMA&#8217;s (U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency) launch of its &#8220;Getting Urgent About the Future&#8221; Strategic Foresight Initiative, not only in itself unfashionably embracing deeper, longer-term thinking about key policy &#38; security issues, but also making an excellent fist of defining its benefits (a definition that is in all essentials equally [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/07/femas-foresight-initiative/</link>
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		<title>Big trends vs. little trends &#8211; as Indian television catches up with Indian women</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Anyone can see a trend &#8211; a pattern in the data, something waxing or waning in the world. You often see trend lists put out by research organizations or trend-tracking firms that itemize things on the march or in decline: people living in foreign countries up 10%; biodiversity down 30%; numbers of patents filed up [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/06/big-trends-vs-little-trends-as-indian-television-catches-up-with-indian-women/</link>
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		<title>The FIFA world cup meets the business model canvas</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve been meaning to write about the business model canvas and how it fabulously advances industry foresight (principally by providing a way to take foresight ideas forward into actions, to-do&#8217;s, and next steps.) It is truly breakthrough stuff. See The Business Model Innovation Hub and the book Business Model Generation, by Alexander Osterwalder and Yves [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/06/the-fifa-2010-world-cup/</link>
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		<title>Industry foresight, or how to avoid &#8216;the dog-chase problem&#8217;</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m always looking for ways to explain the role of quality foresight in everyday management, so I liked this little animated gif from managewell.com. Imagine driving down a country road when a street dog starts chasing your car. The dog attacks the car, but by the time it gets close, the car has moved ahead, [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/06/industry-foresight-or-how-to-avoid-the-dog-chase-problem/</link>
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		<title>The lessons from Bill Gates&#8217; shaky grasp on the future &#8211; 15 years on</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Successful people are considered to be better future prognosticators than average. Why? Because it is assumed they must have known something about the future at some previous point in order to become as successful as they are. (Unfortunately Taleb&#8217;s various injunctions as to the workings of randomness fall on deaf ears, as do Gladwell&#8217;s many [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/05/the-lessons-from-bill-gates-foresight-15-years-on/</link>
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		<title>&#8216;Roll it&#8217; is not the future, but is good futures thinking</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m taken with these pictures of an experimental apartment created by institutes at the University of Karlsruhe, as featured in ArchDaily and Detail. . The point is, this is not the future of housing. Many hyper-efficient solutions have been designed over the years &#8212; many such &#8220;machines for living in,&#8221; that worked perfectly as rational [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/05/roll-it-is-not-the-future-but-is-good-futures-thinking/</link>
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		<title>South Africa 2030, yes there will be life after the Fifa World Cup</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The short-term future in South Africa is the Fifa Soccer World Cup, and at the moment it is really hard to get anyone to see or think beyond it. Football is life. Nevertheless a few hundred intrepid thinkers gathered in Cape Town earlier this month to consider South Africa in 2030, under the auspices of [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/05/south-africa-2030-life-after-the-fifa-world-cup/</link>
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		<title>C.K. Prahalad&#8217;s testimony to the need for foresight in management</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The strategy world has mourned the sudden passing of C.K. Prahalad, Professor of Business Administration at the Ross School, University of Michigan, this week. . As many have commented, Prahalad made great strides in getting business to see the potential in emerging markets and &#8216;poor&#8217; consumers, in The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/04/c-k-prahalads-testimony/</link>
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		<title>Been a while since there was a &#8216;Future Savvy&#8217; podcast, but here&#8217;s a new one</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I had a chat the other day to Stephan Magus for his Abenteuer Zukunft (Future Adventures) podcast channel, taking about the rationale behind making a stand for quality in foresight. That is, what&#8217;s under the hood of Future Savvy, and why. The podcast is up at the Abenteuer Leben site, playable via the buttons on [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/04/a-future-savvy-podcast/</link>
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		<title>&#8216;When trying to predict the future, watch for dog poop’</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I couldn&#8217;t resist reposting this yesterday&#8217;s bit o&#8217; fluff from the cleantech news portal Greenbang, itself reproduced from Forum for the Future, first, well because it cites yours truly; but even more agonizingly because the headline is exactly what I should have called Future Savvy if I knew the first thing about marketing, which I [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/04/when-trying-to-predict-the-future-watch-for-dog-poop%e2%80%99/</link>
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		<title>The Blockbuster bankruptcy: perfecting an existing service while the world moves on</title>
		<description><![CDATA[As of writing, Blockbuster clings to business life, with $1 billion in debt, unprofitable stores and continued losses, and it looks inevitable that it will file for bankruptcy protection. In Q4 &#8217;09 the company posted a loss of $434.9m on revenue of $1.08bn. The stock price has fallen is $0.26 per share, down from lofty [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/04/the-blockbuster-path-to-bankruptcy/</link>
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		<title>The &#8216;start-up&#8217; visa and green card, a far-sighted recessionary surprise</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Legislation is the route by which &#8216;the people&#8217; (or powerful sectarian interests, take your pick,) influence the future. It is often underestimated as a future force, or viewed merely as legislators playing catch-up with technology or societal change. But legislation can be far-sighted, and profoundly shape outcomes. In a fascinating recent development, John Kerry, Democrat [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/03/the-start-up-visa-green-card/</link>
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		<title>&#8216;We need to find a way to make futurism dull,&#8217; says Mr Foresight</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Paul Saffo is always good value, and doesn&#8217;t shy from polemic. In this talk at the Foresight Institute 2010 conference, Saffo, emeritus and alumnus of the the foresight industry for over 20 years has a full swipe at &#8216;futurists&#8217; who participate in &#8216;future-entertainment&#8217; or profess to &#8216;see into the future;&#8217; but calls for the broad [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/03/paul-saffo-talk/</link>
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		<title>The BBC has a jolly decent go at leading its multi-stakeholder future</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The BBC has released a blueprint for its future, summarized in a 64-page &#8216;Director-General&#8217;s Report which can be downloaded here. The gist is the corporation plans to back off from many of its more commercial offerings, particularly closing digital radio stations such as 6Music and the Asian Network, and pruning its online presence. The money [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/03/bbc-futures/</link>
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		<title>The Basicland parable and the future of America, as viewed by one of its best decision-makers</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Charlie Munger, Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation, the diversified investment firm chaired by Warren Buffett, has a piece titled: &#8216;Basically, it&#8217;s Over&#8216; in Slate this week. First, let me say, what I like about investors (and managers and entrepreneurs) with long-term track records of success, is it means &#8212; it must mean, by definition &#8212; [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/02/basicland-future-of-america/</link>
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		<title>The happy medium is a guide to the future for Toyota, McDonalds, and all of us</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Two running business stories with foresight importance this week, both I realize brought to me by smartbrief.com (Smartbrief on Leadership) which I find a very credible news aggregation service. The first is a WSJ piece &#8216;How Lean Manufacturing Can Backfire.&#8217; Lean manufacturing creates efficiencies and shaves production costs by creating just-in-time &#8212; no inventory &#8212; [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/02/guide-to-the-future/</link>
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		<title>Telling words on a running controversy in risk &amp; foresight, from Peter Bernstein</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve been flying across the world recently, which has given me a few quiet moments to read a real bona fide book, and the one I have been busy with is Peter Bernstein&#8217;s Against the Gods: the Remarkable Story of Risk (Wiley, 1996). It&#8217;s aclaimed all over the place, particularly in risk management circles, but [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/02/a-few-telling-words-on-an-unresolved-controversy-in-foresight-work-from-peter-bernstein/</link>
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		<title>Haiti, when the present trumps the future, but possibly jolts it too</title>
		<description><![CDATA[To misquote Ecclesiastes (Kohelet): ‘For everything there is a season and a time for everything under the sun… a time to think about tomorrow, and a time to think about today.’ Those of you who know this blog know that I try to keep it updated every 7-10 days with real content I have personally [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2010/01/haiti-when-the-present-trumps-the-future-but-possibly-jolts-it-too/</link>
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		<title>What goes around comes around, like Yule and mom-and-pop shops inside Wal-Mart</title>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the principles of anticipating the future correctly, separating out what will happen from what we think-hope-fear will happen, is to consciously factor in the principle that fundamental human needs don&#8217;t disappear. They are bundled, interpreted, and served one way in the present, and this may change in a new era as technologies advance [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/12/yule-wal-mart/</link>
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		<title>So who flew to Copenhagen this week?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I have a fond little memory from one of the early multi-candidate debates in the last US election campaign. It was on prime-time TV: there were still about a dozen or so candidates in the running, including Obama and Hillary Clinton, each was standing behind a podium, and as the topic of climate change came [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/12/so-who-flew-to-copenhagen-this-week/</link>
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		<title>Do you have a freshwater or saltwater view of the future?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Economists make a handy, if mildly irreverent, distinction between &#8220;freshwater&#8221; and &#8220;saltwater&#8221; economics. Freshwater refers to economic theory that rests on the efficient markets hypothesis &#8212; a belief in the efficiency and rationality of free markets. It is associated with Milton Friedman and the University of Chicago school. It was the thinking behind Thatcher and [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/12/do-you-have-a-freshwater-or-saltwater-view-of-the-future/</link>
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		<title>The turkey problem in trend work: is your prediction robust to Thanksgiving?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[We owe a debt to Nassim Taleb for memorably encapsulating the demerits of predicting by extrapolating trends as &#8220;The Turkey Problem,&#8221; and now seems the moment to reiterate it: Imagine you are a turkey. Every day someone comes to feed you. Every day you get bigger. Your portion sizes get bigger too, brought by a [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://futuresavvy.net/2009/11/the-turkey-problem-in-trend-extrapolation/</link>
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