Posted by Adam Gordon on Mar 16, 2010 in all, economy & finance, forecast filtering, history, policy, social change
Legislation is the route by which ‘the people’ (or powerful sectarian interests, take your pick,) influence the future. It is often underestimated as a future force, or viewed merely as legislators playing catch-up with technology or societal change. But legislation can be far-sighted, and profoundly shape outcomes.
In a fascinating recent development, John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, and Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, introduced the Start-up Visa Act to the US Senate, as reported in Inc. magazine.
The legislation is a forward-looking bid to turbo-charge entrepreneurial venturing in the U.S. by attracting foreign entrepreneurs and connecting them to U.S. capital, therein driving new economic growth and local jobs. What’s really interesting is it goes against past common wisdom that recessions are ‘bad for immigration’ (as citizens demand job protection.)
If passed, the bill gives U.S. visas to foreigners who can raise $100,000 from an angel investor or $250,000 from a qualified VC firm. After two years, if the immigrant entrepreneur can create five or more jobs (excluding family), attract an additional $1 million in investment, or produce $1 million in revenue, he or she gets a green card (permanent residency.)
The only current option, the EB-5 business investment visa, requires immigrants to invest at least $1 million in the U.S. and employ 10 people.
Job creation
The National Venture Capital Association says 25 percent of America’s venture-backed, publicly-traded businesses, incl. Google, Yahoo!, eBay and Intel have been founded or co-founded by immigrants. According to Richard Herman, author of Immigrant, Inc.: Why Immigrant Entrepreneurs Are Driving the New Economy, nearly all U.S. job creation in the past 20 years has come from companies less than five years old.
The history of US immigration policy has been schizophrenic to say the least, with periods of great social openness followed by about-face door slamming. The slamming has always corresponded to economic downturns or anxiety thereto. But here we have the opposite effect. And we have legislators taking a forward view! Both proof that the future is sure to surprise us.
read morePosted by Adam Gordon on Nov 4, 2008 in 2025, all, forecast filtering, foresight tools & methods, Future Savvy, horizon scanning, managing uncertainty, strategic foresight
My aim for this blog is not particularly to champion success stories for Future Savvy. I’m happy to let the book talk for itself. I’d prefer to look at forecasts and foresight work out there and think about how well it is working, and/or who it may be working for. However it’s nice to be able to report, inter alia, that the book has been quickly picked up and prescribed as a required resource in the Masters Program in Strategic Foresight, at the School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship, Regent University (VA).
Future Savvy is intended to be a book for business and policy professionals, not academics. But it does speak to students and scholars who need to assess and evaluate foresight work. In any event, professors Jay Gary and Dennis Walters have included it alongside works by Wendel Bell, Jerome Glenn, and Ted Gordon (no relation) — household names in the foresight field — so the comparison is of course very happily accepted.
The following is from the course outline. I’ve included the full bibliography, which is in itself a valuable collection of sources in the futures field, and merits attention all the way down the list.
Course Description:
Surveys traditional forecasting theory and methods. After a consideration of forecasting in general, students learn how to conduct research using both qualitative (secondary sources, interviews and questionnaires) and quantitative (data analysis, numerical forecasting and trend decomposition). They also apply critical thinking skills to existing forecasts. [Learning objectives:] 1. Managing: understand the principles and applications of operational forecasting within organizations. 2. Assessing: decide when to use statistical or judgmental methods in strategic forecasting, and how to combine foresight methods to generate 10 to 20 year outlooks. 3. Evaluating: gather information in a specific domain that can be used to forecast baseline as well as alternative futures. 4. Researching: construct a long-term strategic forecast for a client organization that draws upon both quantitative and qualitative sources.
Required Resources
* Bell, Wendell. 1996. Foundations of futures studies: History, purposes, and knowledge. (Human Science for a New Era), vol. 1. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction. ISBN: 0765805391
* Carlberg, C. G. (2005). Excel sales forecasting for dummies. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. ISBN: 0764575937
* Glenn, J. C., and Gordon, T. J. Futures Research Methodology V2.0 CD-ROM American Council for the UNU. ISBN: 097220511X
[This item is available through http://www.acunu.org/millennium/FRM-v2.html]
* Gordon, A. (2009). Future Savvy: Identifying trends to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change. New York: American Management Association. ISBN: 0-8144-0912-1
* Jain, C. L. ed. (2001). Practical guide to business forecasting. Flushing, NY: Graceway. ISBN: 092126758
Recommended and supplemental resources:
* Coates , Joseph F 2025, John B. Mahaffie, and Andy Hines. 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. Oak Hill Press. ISBN: 1886939098, also available in .pdf files via http://www.josephcoates.com/2025_PDF.html
* Armstrong, J. S. (1985). Long-range forecasting: From crystal ball to computer (2nd ed.). New York: Wiley. ISBN: 0471823600, also available in .pdf files via http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Long-Range%20Forecasting/contents.html
* Armstrong, J. Scott. 2001. Principles of Forecasting . Kluwer. ISBN: 0792374010.
* Caplow, T., Hicks, L., & Wattenberg, B. J. (2001). The first measured century: An illustrated guide to trends in America , 1900-2000 . Washington , DC : AEI Press. Download chapters at: http://www.pbs.org/fmc/book.htm
* Dawes, R. M. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34, 571-582.
* Duberley, J., & Johnson, P. (2000). Understanding management research: An introduction to epistemology. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
* Einhorn, H.J. (1986). Accepting error to make less error. Journal of Personality Assessment, 50, 387-395.
* Fischoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.
* Gawiser, Sheldon R., and G. Evans Witt. 1994. A Journalist’s Guide to Public Opinion Polls . Praeger. ISBN: 0275949893.
* Gillham, Bill. 2000. The Research Interview. Continuum International. ISBN: 082644797X.
* Hetman, F. (1969). Le Langage de la prévision, the language of forecasting: With a French-English-German vocabulary. Paris: S.ÉD.ÉI.S. http://www.cnam.fr/lipsor/eng/data/langageprevision.pdf
* Jantsch, E. (1967). Technological forecasting in perspective. Paris: OECD. http://www.cnam.fr/lipsor/recherche/laboratoire/data/prevtech_en_final.pdf
* Makridakis, S. G., Wheelwright, S. C., & Hyndman, R. J. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and applications (3rd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
* Molitor, G. T. (2003). The power to change the world: The art of forecasting. Potomac, MD: Public Policy Forecasting.
* Moore, D. A., Kurtzberg, T., Fox, C. R., & Bazerman, M. H. (1999). Positive illusions and forecasting errors in mutual fund investment decisions. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 79, 95-114.
* Orrell, D. (2007). The future of everything: The science of prediction. New York, NY: Thunder’s Mouth.
* Rescher, N. 1998. Predicting the future: An introduction to the theory of forecasting. Albany: SUNY Press. ISBN: 0-7914-3553-9
* Salant, Priscilla, and Don A. Dillman. 1994. How to Conduct Your Own Survey . Wiley. ISBN: 0471012734.
* Seidensticker, R. B. (2005). Future hype: The myths of technology change. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler.
* Schnaars, S. P. (1989). Megamistakes: Forecasting and the myth of rapid technological change. New York: Free Press
* Sherden, William A. (1998). The fortune sellers: The big business of buying and selling predictions. New York: John Wiley.
* Wood, G. (1992). Predicting outcomes: Sports and Stocks. Journal of Gambling Studies, 8, 201-222.
